Florence, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS64 KHUN 301717
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1217 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The Southeast sits underneath a weak upper level ridge with a
trough axis positioned just to our west across the Southern
Plains. As this trough axis shifts eastward today, a cold front to
the south of sfc low pressure across the Midwest will sweep
through the Tennessee Valley late tonight into early Monday. In
the warm moist airmass ahead of this system, light to moderate
showers have developed and have moved off to the northeast. Medium
chances (50-60%) of showers are forecast through the rest of this
morning and early afternoon with an occasional rumble of thunder
possible given some instability. A gradual decrease in shower
coverage is expected heading into this evening.

Our attention then turns to the cold front that will bring strong
to severe storms to the forecast area overnight. Our current
thoughts are that the storms arrive into NW AL just after midnight
and quickly move to the east and exit the area around 7-8 am
Monday morning. The main concern for severe weather will be a line of
storms along or just ahead of the aforementioned front. While the
atmosphere is likely to become unstable this evening as the cap
erodes, there is little to no forcing to initiate storms. That
being said, if a storm could develop around or just after sunset
tonight it could become severe quite quickly.

Not much has changed in the environmental parameters with the
latest round of CAM guidance. A highly unstable atmosphere with
1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE is expected across portions of NW AL as the
front arrives with 0-1 km shear around 35 knots. Deep layer shear
around 40 knots, while not that strong, is enough to support a
line of storms that would be capable of producing damaging winds
and some embedded tornadoes. Mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km
would also suggest the potential for large hail (1-2"), especially
if any semi-discrete supercell forms along or just ahead of the
main line. The overall greatest severe risk will be in NW AL as
the instability is forecast to decrease as the storms move
eastward. Localized flooding is also possible, but the threat is
relatively low given the quick movement of the front. The greatest
concern would be in our eastern counties where showers have
persisted the longest this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A cold front should be exiting the forecast area on Monday morning
just after sunrise with the severe threat winding down. In its
wake, a cooler and drier airmass advects in from the west. Breezy
gradient winds with gusts 15-20 mph are forecast through the
afternoon hours before weakening by the evening. Afternoon
temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 60s with overnight
lows dipping down into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The brief cooler weather will be short lived as an upper level
ridge amplifies across the Southeast by Tuesday. With southerly
flow returning, temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will rise back
into the lower 70s. Moisture advection ahead of the next system
(details in the long term section) will slowly take place as
dewpoints will gradually rise from the upper 40s Tuesday morning
to the mid 50s by Tuesday night. Therefore, overnight lows only
drop down into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

A very active pattern will continue mid to late week across portions
of the central and southern United States, with multiple rounds of
showers/storms occurring from the mid/lower Mississippi Valley, lower
Ohio Valley, Mid South, and potentially portions of the Tennessee
Valley and Deep South. The first system of note will be a deepening
upper cyclone, ejecting from the Central Rockies onto the Central
Plains and Great Lakes on Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will
send a strong cold front southeast into portions of AR/MO/KY/IL by
the afternoon and evening. Strong forcing from the front, favorable
dynamics, and a very warm, moist, unstable air mass will likely
create very favorable conditions for severe weather in the Mid South
and lower Ohio Valley regions. The main question will be how far
south and east the boundary will make it and subsequently the
potential for severe weather in the Tennessee Valley Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

The main feature that could limit our threat somewhat will be a
strong, amplifying subtropical ridge of high pressure over FL/GA
which will be attempting to build into the Deep South and Tennessee
Valley late Wednesday. With the Tennessee Valley being on the
northwest edge of this ridge, deep southwesterly flow aloft will help
to advect a warm, moist air mass into the area as seen with highs in
the lower 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. However, due to
a lack of forcing during the afternoon/evening, the severe threat
will be conditional. IF storms can somehow initiate during the
Wednesday afternoon/evening window, very favorable thermodynamics
will exist for all modes of severe weather. Confidence in this,
however, is still low as the better forcing/dynamics will likely
be displaced to our northwest. Should the ridge remain a little
further to the southeast, the boundary may move a little closer,
increasing potential for a few severe storms Wednesday evening and
Wednesday night. We will have to monitor the potential for this
in the coming days.

The Tennessee Valley will remain wedged between the ridge to the
southeast and a stalled boundary to the northwest (with several
passing impulses interacting with it) late in the work week. Low to
medium chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast
Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday (with the higher values being
favored across our northwest Alabama zones). A continued threat for
strong to severe storms -- and potentially a longer duration rainfall
event will be present near the stalled boundary (which will be
likely displaced to our north and west). Thus, the threat for any
strong/severe storms (and rain chances) will remain fairly
conditional due to uncertainties in exactly what/where a potential
lifting mechanism will be. By the weekend, a deepening upper low
shifting from the Great Basin into the Southern Plains will attempt
to phase with another trough amplifying over the Great Lakes
which may finally force the boundary through the area. Better
chances for showers/storms will exist, especially by the late
weekend. We`ll also have to monitor this window for the
possibility of strong to severe storms (depending on the timing of
the front and what the thermodynamics will be).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Spotty vicinity showers are possible through the afternoon hours.
There is a very low chance of a thunderstorm, but too low of
confidence to include. A cold front then approaches around to just
after midnight in NW AL and then moves eastward overnight across
the area. Gusty winds and both ceiling/visibility will be reduced
in the heavier storms. AWWs will likely be issued overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northwest portions of
Alabama in a Moderate Risk (40-60%) for Much Above Normal
Precipitation April 5th-6th. Precipitation exceeding 2 inches are
possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...GH